Residual waste infrastructure capacity note
A note released by Defra provides new evidence and analysis on municipal residual waste arisings and infrastructure capacity in England, projecting out to 2035. Municipal waste forecasts are based on the effects of Defra’s packaging reforms versus a business-as-usual scenario.
Reforms included in the modelling include Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for packaging, Simpler Recycling in England, and a Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) for drinks containers. This set of reforms are estimated to reduce annual municipal residual waste arisings by 18% by 2035 relative to 2020 figures.
No policies outside of the packaging reforms were included in scope of the analysis, but other relevant policies not included are noted, including the Plastic Packaging Tax, UK ETS scope expansion to waste, and near elimination of biodegradable waste from landfill.
The modelling undertaken demonstrates that there is likely to be sufficient residual waste infrastructure capacity to treat England’s forecasted municipal residual waste arisings, but more support is required to move waste further up the waste hierarchy and incentivise circularity. Further facilities will have to meet “strict” new criteria on local and environmental conditions.
Additionally, the data shows areas with regional shortfall in available capacity for residual waste treatment, and also highlights several local authorities which are over-reliant on landfill disposal.
Municipal residual waste projections
In the business-as-usual scenario (without the effect of the packaging reforms), municipal residual waste arisings are forecast to increase from 23.6Mt in 2020 to 27.8Mt by 2035.
When accounting for the effects of packaging reforms, municipal residual waste arisings are forecast to decrease from 23.6Mt in 2020 to 19.4Mt by 2035, alongside a 10.9Mt increase in material collected for recycling.
Residual waste infrastructure capacity
Within the note, residual waste treatment infrastructure capacity refers to the treatment of residual waste through:
- domestic energy recovery (either as received or pre-treated by mechanical or biological processes)
- export as refuse-derived fuel (RDF) for energy recovery overseas
- disposal in landfill.
In 2035, total energy recovery capacity is estimated to include 18.8 megatonnes (Mt) in comparison to 19.4Mt of municipal residual waste. Total residual waste treatment capacity is forecast to be approximately 24.9Mt, including an allowance for capacity in landfills to manage 10% of all municipal solid wastes.
The paper found that currently, England has 20.6 million tonnes of residual waste capacity, with 50 EfW plants constituting almost 70% of the capacity.
A further 3.9 million tonnes of energy recovery capacity is currently under construction, with 9.5 million tonnes (35 facilities), having received planning consent. However, Defra said it didn’t expect all of these to secure the long-term feedstock contracts required to begin construction, adjusting forecasts accordingly by case.
Implications for the Energy from Waste (EfW) sector
One of the government’s commitments in the note, to address concerns raised in recent press about overcapacity in the sector, is to only approve EfW facilities meeting “strict new local and environmental conditions”. However, it is recognised that additional energy recovery facilities may still be required.
New or substantially retrofitting plants will need to be ready to adopt carbon capture technology and/or viably produce heat for heat networks, in accordance with the ‘decarbonisation readiness’ requirements coming into force shortly. The note supports the eventual decommissioning of facilities that are less efficient, cannot support net zero objectives, or are no longer required.
Positively, the note highlights the important and often-overlooked role played by EfW incineration in safely destroying persistent organic pollutants (POPs).
Also noted is the greenhouse gas removals (GGR) potential of the sector, which will be vital to meeting the Government’s net zero targets. Two EfW carbon capture and storage projects, Viridor’s facility at Runcorn and Encyclis’ Protos Energy Recovery Facility development at Ellesmere Port, are mentioned as being taken forward to negotiations for support under the waste industrial carbon capture business model.
For further information, read the note on the Government’s website.